THE DEAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · ISSUE 3 · MARCH 2026
A monthly view of human capital risk and value creation for private equity, built on Deltabase culture, workforce and talent data covering 5,500+ companies and 11M employee reviews.
Editor's note
March is pay month in UK retail, and this year's round arrived alongside a sharp rise in employment costs. Supermarkets confirmed rises of 4% to 6.9%, Next showed how wage and National Insurance increases are squeezing store profits, and Asda's results offered a check-up on a turnaround under private equity ownership. Our data shows retail culture improved almost across the board in 2025, though from a low base.
Lucie Odell, Deltabase
The month in three
1. Supermarkets set 2026 pay
What happened: By 25 March, the major grocers had confirmed this year's hourly pay. Aldi moves to £13.50 from 1 April, M&S raises customer assistant pay by 6.4% to at least £13.41, the John Lewis Partnership awards 6.9%, Tesco 5.1% and Asda 4% in two stages, reaching £13.10 from July.
The Deltabase lens: Pay & Rewards is already a relative strength for the listed grocers. In 2025, Sainsbury's scored +45.0%, up from +38.5%, M&S +43.1% and Tesco +40.0%, down from +44.9%.
So what: For retail assets, the pay rate is only half of the reward picture. Check whether employees see their pay as fair against peers, because that is what Pay & Rewards sentiment captures.
2. Next absorbs £75m of extra costs
What happened: On 26 March, Next reported pre-tax profit up 15% to £1.2bn but retail store profit down 5% to £193m, which it attributed to higher employment costs. Cost increases totalled £75m, partly offset by £57m of savings, including £39m from normalising employee bonuses.
The Deltabase lens: Next has improved sharply from a low base. Its NSS rose 9.2 pts to −11.7% in 2025 (1,257 and 964 reviews), and Pay & Rewards climbed from −14.1% to −1.1%.
So what: Employee sentiment improved over the same period that Next was normalising bonuses. That is the kind of resilience a buyer should test for rather than assume, especially in store-heavy models.
3. Asda's turnaround under TDR
What happened: Asda's 2025 results on 27 March showed sales excluding fuel down 3.3% to £21bn and adjusted EBITDA after rent down 33.1% to £764m. Chairman Allan Leighton pointed to two months of positive like-for-like store sales. TDR Capital owns 67.5%, Mohsin Issa 22.5% and Walmart 10%.
The Deltabase lens: Asda's NSS fell every year from −3.5% in 2021 (2,309 reviews) to −12.8% in 2024, before recovering to −9.8% in 2025 (1,256 reviews), its first year-on-year improvement since 2020.
So what: Culture data across a hold period shows when a value creation plan starts to cost goodwill, and when a turnaround begins to land with employees. Asda's 2025 score is an early, modest sign of the latter.
Stat of the month
9 of 10: retailers in the Deltabase Top 100 improved their NSS in 2025, and the sector median rose from −4.2% to −1.6%.
| Retailer | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Costco | +9.9% | +15.3% | +5.4 pts |
| Tesco | +4.0% | +5.1% | +1.2 pts |
| Marks & Spencer | −5.9% | −2.5% | +3.3 pts |
| Next | −20.9% | −11.7% | +9.2 pts |
| Kroger | −23.6% | −17.6% | +6.0 pts |
| Median (10 retailers) | −4.2% | −1.6% | +2.6 pts |
Source: Deltabase Culture data, Employee Net Sentiment Score (−100% to +100%), 2024 and 2025. Median and count across Walmart, Costco, Target, Home Depot, Kroger, Tesco, Sainsbury's, Marks & Spencer, Next and John Lewis & Partners.
Spotlight: Tesco vs Sainsbury's
The UK's two largest grocers both improved in 2025, but on different terms. Tesco's NSS rose from +4.0% to +5.1% (5,621 and 3,787 reviews), while Sainsbury's moved from −0.4% to +0.2% (2,250 and 1,841 reviews). On Pay & Rewards the order flips: Sainsbury's rose from +38.5% to +45.0%, while Tesco slipped from +44.9% to +40.0%. Tesco leads on overall culture; Sainsbury's is gaining ground on reward. For investors in grocery and its supply chain, both trends matter for labour stability.
For your deal team
- In retail diligence, set the target's Pay & Rewards score against the listed grocers (+40.0% to +45.0% in 2025) before modelling wage inflation.
- Track NSS across the hold period, not just at entry: Asda's trajectory shows how quickly goodwill can erode, and how slowly it returns.
- Where bonuses are being reset, check Pay & Rewards and Supportive Leadership in the following year for signs of strain.
Request a Human Capital due-diligence snapshot: a culture, talent and turnover read-out on any target or portfolio company. Talk to Deltabase →
Sources: Retail Gazette (25 March 2026); City AM (26 March 2026); Northern Financial Review (27 March 2026); Deltabase Culture data.