THE DEAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · ISSUE 2 · FEBRUARY 2026
A monthly view of human capital risk and value creation for private equity, built on Deltabase culture, workforce and talent data covering 5,500+ companies and 11M employee reviews.
Editor's note
February was a month of new chief executives making their first big calls in consumer goods. Kraft Heinz paused its break-up, Unilever guided to the bottom of its range and Diageo halved its dividend. For deal teams, each is a reminder that a leadership change resets the equity story and the people story at the same time. Our data shows employee confidence in leadership across the sector was already slipping before these calls were made.
Lucie Odell, Deltabase
The month in three
1. Kraft Heinz hits pause on its split
What happened: On 11 February, Kraft Heinz paused its planned separation into two companies, first announced in September 2025. Steve Cahillane, chief executive since January, will instead put US$600m into marketing and R&D, and forecast 2026 organic net sales down 1.5% to 3.5%. He described many of the challenges as "fixable and within our control".
The Deltabase lens: Kraft Heinz recorded an Employee Net Sentiment Score (NSS) of −1.1% in 2025 on 527 reviews. That is below every Consumer Goods company in the Deltabase Top 100 except Diageo, and well short of the sector median of +8.2%.
So what: A paused separation leaves carve-out teams, duplicated roles and a leadership team that has just changed direction. Treat sentiment as a baseline for the turnaround case, not a footnote.
2. Unilever guides to the bottom of its range
What happened: Unilever's full-year results on 12 February showed fourth-quarter underlying sales growth of 4.2%, ahead of forecasts, but the company expects 2026 growth at the bottom of its 4% to 6% range. Underlying operating profit fell 1.1% to €10.1bn and a new €1.5bn buyback was announced. Finance chief Srinivas Phatak said the scale of change in 2025 showed "this is a different Unilever".
The Deltabase lens: Unilever's NSS eased from +6.7% in 2024 to +4.9% in 2025 (2,289 and 1,527 reviews). Supportive Leadership fell 8.6 pts to −22.0%, and Agility & Bureaucracy dropped from −45.1% to −60.0%.
So what: Portfolio reshaping is landing on a workforce that already rates bureaucracy as a major pain point. Diligence on any Unilever carve-out should test middle-management capacity as closely as brand strength.
3. Diageo's new chief halves the dividend
What happened: On 25 February, Diageo halved its interim dividend to 20 cents from 40.5 cents and now expects organic sales to fall 2% to 3% in 2026, its second guidance cut in four months. Dave Lewis, formerly chief executive of Tesco, took over in January.
The Deltabase lens: Diageo has the lowest NSS of the ten Consumer Goods companies in our Top 100, falling from −3.0% in 2024 to −6.6% in 2025 (551 and 325 reviews). Supportive Leadership dropped 17.7 pts to −57.0%.
So what: A reset of this scale needs employees who believe in the plan, and the leadership score suggests that belief has to be rebuilt. That is a people risk to price into any transaction involving the group or its brands.
Stat of the month
8 of 10: Consumer Goods leaders in the Deltabase Top 100 saw Supportive Leadership sentiment fall in 2025, and the sector median dropped from −18.1% to −23.0%.
| Company | 2024 | 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Colgate-Palmolive | −5.0% | −23.3% | −18.3 pts |
| Diageo | −39.3% | −57.0% | −17.7 pts |
| Kimberly-Clark | −4.5% | −18.5% | −14.0 pts |
| Unilever | −13.4% | −22.0% | −8.6 pts |
| Reckitt | −33.3% | −28.5% | +4.8 pts |
| Median (10 companies) | −18.1% | −23.0% | −4.9 pts |
Source: Deltabase Culture data, Employee Net Sentiment Score (−100% to +100%), Supportive Leadership topic, 2024 and 2025. Median across Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Nestlé, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, Reckitt, Diageo, Colgate-Palmolive, Mondelez and Kimberly-Clark.
Spotlight: Coca-Cola vs PepsiCo
The two cola giants sit close together on overall sentiment but far apart on leadership. Coca-Cola's NSS rose from +10.4% in 2024 to +11.6% in 2025 (1,122 and 825 reviews), while PepsiCo's slipped from +8.2% to +7.5% (2,644 and 1,909 reviews). The gap is sharper on Supportive Leadership: Coca-Cola edged up 0.9 pts to −11.7%, one of only two improvers in the sector, while PepsiCo fell to −35.2%, a gap of 23.5 pts. For investors assessing brands, bottlers or carve-outs from either group, leadership is the clearer differentiator.
For your deal team
- Where a target has a new CEO, pull Supportive Leadership for the two years before the change to set a baseline for the 100-day plan.
- In carve-outs or paused separations, test Agility & Bureaucracy and Career Progression for the business being separated, not just the parent.
- Benchmark any consumer target against the Top 100 sector median (+8.2% NSS in 2025) before accepting management's view of culture.
Request a Human Capital due-diligence snapshot: a culture, talent and turnover read-out on any target or portfolio company. Talk to Deltabase →
Sources: BNN Bloomberg (11 February 2026); RTÉ/Reuters (12 February 2026); Grocery Gazette (26 February 2026); Deltabase Culture data.