THE DEAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEF · ISSUE 1 · JANUARY 2026
A monthly view of human capital risk and value creation for private equity, built on Deltabase culture, workforce and talent data covering 5,500+ companies and 11M employee reviews.
Editor's note
Welcome to the first Deal Intelligence Brief. January's outlooks all agree: hold periods are getting longer, and that makes leadership and workforce stability a value-creation issue rather than an HR footnote. This month UK employment law also tightened, and Davos was dominated by AI and jobs. Here's what that means for your portfolio, with the data to back it up.
Lucie Odell, Deltabase
The month in three
1. Longer holds put leadership under the microscope
What happened: PitchBook's 2026 US PE outlook put talent at the centre of value creation. Around 30% of US PE-backed companies have been held for seven years or more. Sponsors are showing less patience with leaders who aren't scaling with the business. PitchBook also expects platform buyouts to make up 25%+ of deal activity, which increases demand for CHROs with integration experience.
The Deltabase lens: Over a seven-year hold, culture won't stay where you found it. In UK facilities management and construction, Mitie's Employee Net Sentiment Score (NSS) moved from +8.7% in 2024 to −13.4% in 2025, a 22-point swing in a single year (based on 624 and 394 reviews). Kier went the other way, improving from +6.4% to +11.2%.
So what: If you only take a culture snapshot at diligence, it will be out of date by the first board meeting. Track sentiment annually across the hold, the same way you track EBITDA.
2. The Employment Rights Act sets the 2026–27 timeline
What happened: The Employment Rights Act 2025 became law at the end of 2025, and the first commencement regulations were laid in January. From April 2026, the protective award for failing to consult properly on collective redundancies doubles from 90 to 180 days' pay per employee. From January 2027, the unfair-dismissal qualifying period falls to six months and the compensation cap is removed.
The Deltabase lens: Restructuring-led value creation plans now carry more people risk. That risk is highest where sentiment is already negative: Balfour Beatty (−11.2%) and Amey (−14.1%) both ended 2025 below zero.
So what: Model consultation timelines and claim exposure into any 2026 restructuring case, and treat weak sentiment as a risk multiplier.
3. Davos: "jobs, jobs, jobs", but the returns aren't proven yet
What happened: At the World Economic Forum (19–23 January), leaders presented AI as a jobs engine. Nvidia's Jensen Huang summed it up as "jobs, jobs, jobs". Unions warned that workers have little say in how AI is rolled out. PwC's CEO Survey found only one in eight CEOs said AI was both lowering costs and increasing revenue.
The Deltabase lens: AI-led operating model change has a visible culture cost. Accenture's NSS fell from +7.0% in 2022 to −7.9% in 2025 while it restructured around AI. Its Career Progression score in 2025 was −67.6%.
So what: When a value creation plan relies on AI productivity, test whether the workforce will come with you.
Stat of the month
22 points: the swing in Mitie's employee sentiment between 2024 and 2025, larger than the gap between most companies in the sector.
| Company | NSS 2024 | NSS 2025 | Change |
|---|
| Kier Group | +6.4% | +11.2% | +4.8 pts |
| Mitie Group | +8.7% | −13.4% | −22.1 pts |
| Balfour Beatty | −6.5% | −11.2% | −4.7 pts |
| Amey | −21.4% | −14.1% | +7.3 pts |
Source: Deltabase Culture data, Employee Net Sentiment Score (−100% to +100%), full calendar years.
Spotlight: Kier vs Mitie
These are two UK outsourcing and infrastructure businesses with similar workforce profiles, and they went in opposite directions in 2025. Kier has improved for two years running, from +2.3% in 2023 to +11.2% in 2025. Mitie reversed its 2024 gains. For an investor, the question isn't which score is higher. It's which management team can explain its trend.
For your deal team
- Add a three-year sentiment trend, not a single score, to every diligence pack.
- Re-run Employment Rights Act exposure on any portfolio company planning a 2026 restructure.
- Ask portfolio CEOs how their AI plans will affect Career Progression, and measure it.
Request a Human Capital due-diligence snapshot: a culture, talent and turnover read-out on any target or portfolio company. Talk to Deltabase →
Sources: PitchBook 2026 US PE Outlook via Hunt Scanlon Media; Clyde & Co, "Top 5 recent workplace developments – January 2026"; CIPD; Reuters/Dawn coverage of WEF Davos 2026; Deltabase Culture data.